Wired has posted some “wild” predictions for what will be coming down the pipe this year in the world of technology. Some are interesting, some sound a bit, well, out there (not sure this is tongue-in-cheek on their part, but whatever).
First off, Google stock hitting $1000 per share? This is possible, albeit dependant on a lot of things, including Google’s debuting of its own proprietary OS and more technical infrastructure in major U.S. cities for its free wireless plans. This is possible, but it will take some significant moves by Google for it to happen first. The natural growth of Google stock needs some uptick now.
Internet traffic doubling to 5,000 petabits per day sounds reasonably possible with more video being available for sharing via BitTorrent. There’s always room for data traffic numbers to grow, but doubling? I think that’s probably more likely closer to the very end of this year or in 2008, not anytime in the forseeable future.
Spam doubles? Yup, that’s a given.
Second Life ends a life? Not so sure here. MySpace has had issues with “offline” crimes being committed via social networking, but this sounds a tad far-fetched thus far. There’s only about 1.5 million people on Second Life at the moment; I don’t think a real-world murder is imminent via Second Life.
Year of the Laptop? This seems a touch late to the screening, doesn’t it? Wasn’t 2005 the year of the laptop? By 2010, computer prices will likely halve once again to make desktop computers about the same price as a Nintendo Wii is today; laptops are still pretty pricey for them to completely overtake desktops anytime soon. We’ve been hearing so much hype over them for so long now any prediction about laptops seems like a lot of smoke-and-mirrors.
Print to web? This is becoming more and more of a potential reality as the years go by, although I’m not sure any major market newspaper would make such a bold leap as abandoning print altogether. The newspaper market is still very much in a transition period, trying to shake out how to make big revenues from online forums, so if a major market paper did something like this, it wouldn’t be pretty from a revenue point of view. People still love their print newspapers.
Apple goes Apple? Probably – The Beatles can’t hold out of such a marketing coup like iTunes forever. It’s inevitable that pesky White Album will be available for download this year via Apple Computers.
HD-DVD wins – it looks like this is going to happen. The main power behind Blu-Ray discs, Sony, has hit a major bump in the road over the Playstation 3. The Ps3 was supposed to be the driver of Blu-Ray adoption among consumers; combined with a jaw-dropping price of nearly $700 and a horrendous launch best described as “clumsy” on Sony’s part, the Ps3 may have already lost this console war (I was at Best Buy today; while the Wii is nowhere to be found, there were over 10 Ps3 units sitting by themselves and no one buying them to be found – not a good sign).
After that, the rest of the “predictions” kind of turn ironic and crazy. Yes yes Wired, I get the joke.